Cheap Seat Chronicles

It’s a Dunn Deal

Posted on February 11, 2009 by Jeremiah Graves

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It finally happened. Adam Dunn, he of the five consecutive 40-homer seasons, has found a new home in Washington DC.

Dunn reportedly signed a two-year, $20 million deal with the Nationals, presumably to play first base and hit cleanup for a team that was in dire need of a legitimate power threat behind Ryan Zimmerman in the lineup.

The already crowded outfield is no place for Dunn’s lackluster defense so he’ll take over at first base, a position he has played 127 times in his career. Dunn’s fielding percentage at first (.984) is lower than incumbents Dmitri Young and Nick Johnson, however, his penchant for staying healthy and crushing the long ball makes both Young and Johnson expendable.

Dunn shouldn’t suffer too much of a drop in power production at Nationals Park as the dimensions are only slightly larger than Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati where Dunn hit 124 of his career 278 home runs.

It was reported that the Dodgers and Angels were interested in Dunn as a second-option behind Manny Ramirez and Bobby Abreu, respectively. The Angels locked up Abreu on a one-year deal today and the Dodgers are rapidly running out of Manny-alternatives now that Dunn has signed on with the Nats.

Dunn was originally seeking a long-term deal with a contender, but failed to land a job when the market was flooded with left-handed DH-types this winter. This deal does, however, make plenty of sense for Dunn long-term. He will be a free agent again at 31 when the economy figures to be improved and the market for a slugging lefty should be far more favorable.

For now, the Nationals are the big winners as they gain one of baseball’s premier power bats—at a discounted rate no less—and they can now look to thin the offensive herd they’ve acquired to add more pitching via the trade market.

Posted in Adam Dunn, Baseball, Cheap Seat Chronicles, Free Agency, MLB, NL East, Washington Nationals | Leave a comment

Angels Adding Abreu?!

Posted on February 10, 2009 by Jeremiah Graves

abreu001 According to reports, the Los Angeles Angels are nearing a one-year deal with free-agent outfielder Bobby Abreu. If these rumors prove to be true this will be a win-win-win for all parties.

Bobby Abreu would gain a chance to join a contender and contribute immediately in much the same manner as Mark Teixeira did late last season. Abreu is a proven hitter who, despite his diminishing power, can still be a big contributor in the middle of a lineup.

A left-handed hitter, Abreu is a career .300 hitter and has a career OBP of .405. Teixiera, although six years younger, has career numbers of .290 and .378 respectively. As such, the deal also makes plenty of sense for the Angels who are looking for someone to replicate the production lost when Teixeira signed with the Yankees.

The downside to this deal is that the Angels would be adding to the surplus of outfielders with limited defensive ability and range. Currently the Angels have Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Juan Rivera, Gary Matthews and Reggie Willits in their outfield/designated hitter cluster. Abreu would only further clog up that rotation, but could allow the Angels to move Matthews or Willits.

The third party helped out in this situation is the remainder of the free-agent class. If the Angels sign Abreu it would make remaining free agents such as Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, Ken Griffey Jr. and Joe Crede all the more valuable to clubs in need of an impact bat as the market would lose one of the few remaining game-changers available.

Whether this deal actually goes down or not, this is definitely the type of signing that would make plenty of sense for all sides.

Posted in AL West, American League, Baseball, Bobby Abreu, Free Agency, Los Angeles Angels | Leave a comment

Top Five Under-the-Radar Signings

Posted on February 9, 2009 by Jeremiah Graves

This offseason has been one unlike any other in recent memory. Tons of talent was available via free-agency, but most teams were in penny-pinching mode. As a result, numerous superstars and role-players remain unsigned with the countdown to Spring Training now in the single-digits.

With that fact in mind it’s time to take a look at some of the more under-the-radar signings that did happen, but aren’t getting nearly the hype they deserve.

Juan Rivera, Los Angeles Angels – three-years, $12.75-million

I’ve been very high on Rivera since his breakout campaign in 2006 where he raked a line of 23/85/.310. A broken leg coupled with the back-to-back high-priced offseason signings of Gary Matthews Jr. and Torii Hunter limited his playing time in 2007 and 2008.

Despite the abundance of outfielders on the roster last season, Rivera won over manager Mike Scioscia and stole at bats down the stretch from both Garret Anderson and Matthews. From July onward Rivera hit .274 with 12 home runs and 42 runs batted in; a very good sign that the glimpse of his potential we received in 2006 was the real deal.

Now that Anderson is out of the picture and Matthews has been reduced to a fourth outfielder/DH the path is clear for Rivera to step in as the everyday left fielder in 2009. He has incredible potential to be the power bat the Angels have long coveted and recently lost when Mark Teixeira signed with the Yankees.

If healthy and given a full-season worth of at-bats Rivera could very easily hit .300 with 30 home runs and 100+ runs batted in.

Andruw Jones, Texas Rangers – one-year, $500,000 (minor league deal)

I know…the dude is toast. To be perfectly honest, if I didn’t believe heavily in second (and third or fourth) chances, I’d feel the same way. Unfortunately, I do–in fact–believe in second (and third or fourth) chances. As such, I can’t quite give up on the belief that the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man could show up to Spring Training in shape and ready to crush.

Rumors out of Texas are that Jones has indeed slimmed down and his surgically repaired knee appears to be in good shape. If those reports prove true Jones’ next obstacle will be to regain his once infamous power stroke. Between 1998-2007, Jones hit .266 with an average of 97 runs scored, 34 home runs and 103 RBIs.

Renowned hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo will be counted on heavily to help Jones on his quest to win the centerfield job. Jones could have a big year in Texas, especially in a lineup that surrounds him with the likes of Josh Hamilton, Hank Blalock, Chris Davis, Ian Kinsler and Michael Young.

If he can stay healthy (and fit) Jones could easily put up a big year. I’d consider a .260 average with 30-40 home runs and 100+ runs batted in to be very much in the realm of possibility for Jones given the ideal ballpark and lineup conditions he’ll be given in 2009.

Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles – two-years, $6 million

Wigginton, a career .270 hitter with 110 home runs in seven seasons, is coming off a career year. The right-handed hitter split time between left field and third base with Houston last season, batting .285 with 23 home runs in just 386 at-bats. In his career he’s also put in time at second base, first base, right field and designated hitter.

Three of the Orioles’ top four power bats–Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis and Luke Scott–bat from the left side, and Wigginton may be able to break up that block of the lineup. The acquisition of Wigginton also provides some obvious defensive flexibility for Baltimore. His ability to start at the corners in both the outfield and infield as well as second base (his natural position) could also allow the O’s to move Brian Roberts and/or Melvin Mora before season’s end.

Although no stranger to the American League East–Wigginton hit 24 home runs with a .275 batting average for Tampa Bay in 2006–it is still logical to assume Wigginton will have a period of adjustment and may struggle with consistency until the Orioles find a permanent position for him in the field.

A rough early projection for Wigginton would see him putting up a line of 20/75/.270 in 2009 while seeing significant playing time at multiple positions.

Juan Uribe, San Francisco Giants – one-year, $1 million (minor league deal)

In signing Uribe, the Giants have strengthened their odds of competing in the wide-open National League West. Uribe is coming off one of his worst professional seasons after being displaced twice in 2008 with the White Sox first losing his starting job at shortstop to Orlando Cabrera and later losing his second base job to Alexei Ramirez; eventually settling in at third base when Joe Crede went down with a back injury.

Despite a down year in 2008, Uribe can still provide the Giants with some much needed pop. He has averaged 20 homers per season from 2004-2007, but is no longer a strong defensive shortstop and the power comes with a hideous .295 career on-base percentage. As such, he figures to play a prominent bench role; although it is not completely out of line to think he could win a starting job at second base with a strong showing this spring.

Uribe hasn’t played in the NL since 2003 with the Rockies and could struggle to readjust to the ballparks and deep rotations of the NL West. Uribe, however, showed last season that he was more than capable of adjusting to change and could turn into a major contributor with the Giants in 2009.

I’d project a line (assuming he plays part-time and off the bench) of 11/36/.275 with plenty of contributions around the infield throughout the season.

Brandon Lyon, Detroit Tigers – one-year, $4.25 million

Brandon Lyon hit the market at the worst-time possible, when it was flooded with marquee closers and prices were being driven down. As the dominos started to fall it seemed that Lyon would be forced to settle for a deal as a setup man…and then the Tigers came calling.

The Tigers–who went from a World Series lock to a last place team in 2008–are working to rebuild a bullpen that was one of many glaring weaknesses in last year’s lost season. Lyon, who saved 26 games in 2008, figures the best bet to win the closer role over incumbent late-inning warriors Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya.

Lyon isn’t cut from the same mold as the usual overpowering closer. He uses a solid four-pitch repertoire that combines low to mid 90s fastball with a big curveball, slider and changeup. Occasionally he gets away from that mix and gets in trouble as he did down the stretch last year in Arizona when he lost the closer’s role.

Projecting a line for a closer is always tough, but I’ll go ahead and give it a go. I’d expect for Lyon to save close to 30 games in 2009 with an ERA around 4.00 and 50+ strikeouts.

Posted in AL Central, AL East, AL West, American League, Andruw Jones, Baltimore Orioles, Baseball, Brandon Lyon, Detroit Tigers, Juan Rivera, Juan Uribe, Los Angeles Angels, MLB, National League, NL West, Projections, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Ty Wigginton | Leave a comment

Five Burning Questions for ’09

Posted on February 8, 2009 by Jeremiah Graves

twins_territory_smaller The 2008 Twins weren’t expected to be competitive, let alone be in the mix to win the AL Central which had been deemed a two-team race between the Indians and Tigers long before pitchers and catchers even thought about reporting. Fast-forward one year and the Twins will be reporting to Fort Myers as a team that ended 2008 with a tough 1-0 loss to the rival White Sox in the 163rd game of the season, a one-game tie-breaker to determine the division winner.

This offseason the Twins made few moves, a stark contrast from last winter’s purging of Johan Santana, Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva. The quiet winter, however, didn’t change the Twins’ intention of competing for a fifth division crown in eight years in 2009.

Now that the days until Spring Training are down to single-digits it’s time to take a look at the five biggest questions facing the Twins in 2009.

1) Can the rotation repeat last year’s success?

Last season the Twins rotation was one of the most impressive in all of baseball and–following the jettisoning of Livan Hernandez–one of the youngest. All five members of the projected starting rotation earned double-digit wins last season and figure to take a step forward. If, however, any member of the rotation should falter Kevin Mulvey, Phil Humber and R.A. Dickey could step in and serve a larger role.

2) Will there be enough power?

In the past three seasons Justin Morneau has hit 88 home runs. Last season all of the Twins not named Justin Morneau hit 88 home runs…combined. Needless to say the Twins are in need of another power bat. With sluggers like Adam Dunn, Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez still on the market one has to wonder if the Twins could be looking to add another slugger so Morneau doesn’t have to do the heavy-lifting all by himself for another season.

3) Who plays third-base?

The Twins never-ending black-hole at the hot corner doesn’t appear to be ending any time soon. Last year’s signing of Mike Lamb proved to be a mistake as Lamb quickly played his way out of the starting lineup and eventually the league. This offseason’s failed attempt to sign Casey Blake coupled with tepid pursuits of Ty Wigginton and Joe Crede have left the Twins with the same Brian Buscher/Brendan Harris platoon that underachieved down the stretch in 2008.

4) Who is the odd-man out?

The Twins have one of the best outfield quartets in baseball with Carlos Gomez, Delmon Young, Michael Cuddyer and Denard Span on the roster. Unfortunately, Major League rules only permit three men in the outfield. This leaves Ron Gardenhire with the tough task of trying to find enough playing time and at-bats for all four men. In signing Jason Kubel to a two-year contract to serve as the team’s DH the situation grew even more muddled. Expect a big battle in Fort Myers.

5) Who builds the bridge to Joe Nathan?

When Pat Neshek was lost early last season the Twins quickly realized they had little insurance in the middle innings. The Twins signed Luis Ayala on Saturday as a potential setup solution after unsuccessful pursuits of Brandon Lyon and Eric Gagne earlier this winter. If Ayala can regain the form he showed with the Nationals/Expos in the past he could be exactly what the Twins are looking for. In addition, the Twins will be looking for big bounce-back seasons from Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier as well as potential contributions from Boof Bonser and Humber who are both out of options.

Posted in Cheap Seat Chronicles, Minnesota Twins, Projections | Leave a comment

Football Etiquette 101: Forgiveness vs. Fervor

Posted on January 2, 2009 by Jeremiah Graves

As many of you out here in blog-land know, I’m a big baseball fan and primarily, just a baseball fan. Don’t get me wrong, I do enjoy other sports, but more on the level of participating and not watching or committing myself to full-on fandom.

I mean seriously, if you ask me to play basketball I’m all for it. If you want me to sit and watching two hours of ball hogs, prima donnas and guys flopping to the ground every thirty seconds to draw a charging foul…fat chance.

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I enjoy playing football as much as anyone. Every December 26^th I play in an annual flag football game with friends in the snow and wind of northwest Iowa. Until recently, however, I’d sort of sort of grown to detest professional football. Living in Mankato for college I got to experience the Vikings’ training camp every August and quickly grew to hate the players, the coaches and ultimately the professional game itself.

Let’s be honest if Mike Tice had nearly run you down with a golf cart or Randy Moss had sauntered out in the middle of traffic expecting you to just slam on the brakes and pretend you didn’t care, you’d be a little disenfranchised as well. If you were struggling to pay rent while earning seven dollars an hour at the library and had to watch Daunte Culpepper roll up to campus to park his Hummer next to his Escalade, you’d start to get a little sick of the whole shebang as well.

Well, when we moved to Boston, I figured that with a new time zone, a new job and new outlook I would delve into the world of football with an open-mind. As I said before, prior to my yearly Vikings-fiasco, I’d always appreciated and enjoyed football. In fact, in the Graves family football goes deeper than baseball. All of my uncles played football and all of their children played football as well; a tradition that came to a screeching halt after I retired from the game following junior high.

I also have followed football—despite not really following football—for the better part of the last decade as a result of my yearly fantasy football leagues, which I’ve generally been quite successful in. As such, I figured what the hell, let’s give football another shot.

What’s unfortunate is that my two favorite football players are Brett Favre and Tom Brady (ask around, I’m not some Johnny Come-Lately on these boys) so I began cheering for the Packers and the Patriots.

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You know what happens when you finally get into football and the two teams you’re rooting for are having incredible seasons? People start to call you a front-runner.

So there I am, rooting for Tom Brady and the Pats as they march toward the Super Bowl and an undefeated season. And there I am rooting for Brett Favre as he pulls out a season of inspired play to push the Packers all the way to the NFC Championship game and a heart-breaking loss to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Giants.

Needless to say I’ve received more than a few jeers as a result of my rally-rooting for two of the top teams in the game, but I shook it off and continued to stay committed to my newly found joy for all things football.

When the 2008-2009 season opened with Brett Favre under center in New York and—very soon after—with Tom Brady under the knife and out for the year, I received more commentary. Would I still root for Favre now that he was trying to oust my newly-beloved Patriots? Would the Patriots still be so beloved with the hope of another undefeated season out the window?

Well in what I can only describe as my best efforts to thwart all those who labeled me a fair-weathered fan or a front-runner, I continued to cheer for the Pats and for Brett despite the blatant ebbs and flows of the regular season.

So now, here we sit. January 2, 2009. The Patriots and the Jets are both going to be watching the playoffs from the comfort of their living rooms. Brett Favre may be done with football forever (again) and Tom Brady—coming off hardcore knee surgery—may never be the same player he once was.

And here I sit, with a ticket to my first professional football game ever. Not to watch my favorite player of all-time. Not to watch the Pats. No, this ticket is to a game featuring the only team I can legitimately say I’ve ever truly despised in pro-sports (yes, Yankees included).

This Sunday I will be at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in downtown Minneapolis to watch the Minnesota Vikings clash with the Philadelphia Eagles in the first round of the playoffs.

Now this is where I must implore all of you—my faithful readers—for some advice.

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What is a guy to do?!

Should I use this experience as a chance to be one of the few who regales himself by cheering against what is sure to be a raucous crowd of Vikings backers or should I take this opportunity to exorcise my football demons and cheer for the Vikings.

If you think about it, all of key components to my Vikings/football-related contempt have been jettisoned from the great white north. Culpepper is a washed-up, once-retired quarterback of sorts for the lowly Detroit Lions. Mike Tice is serving as an assistant in Jacksonville—where I’m sure he’s long-since lost his golf-cart privileges. Randy Moss—after publicly cleaning up his act—has become one of my favorite players in the vaunted New England air-attack.

I do think that the current Vikings roster is pretty solid. Tarvaris Jackson—although clearly a work-in-progress—has great potential to be a more grounded version of Michael Vick. The Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor running back combo is one of the more dynamic in the league with incredible potential to change a game on any handoff. Visanthe Shiancoe is an exciting and underrated playmaker who figures prominently into the passing game with Jackson’s style. The defense has been solid all-year long and has the ability to shut-down any offense in the NFL.

So now I question all of you…what is the right move?!

Do I root against the Vikings out of long-since-expired contempt or do I buck-up and move forward by allowing myself to root for a team that, despite my best attempts, I’ve still followed quite regularly as a result of the team’s tie to my old stomping grounds and dang near everyone who inhabits the greater frozen Midwest.

What is the appropriate football protocol?!

So I shall gather responses and make my decision by the time I leave for the stadium on Sunday…your help will be greatly appreciated. And I guess if no one replies…then I’ll spend the afternoon quietly watching what figures to be a good game whilst woofing down Dome Dogs and overpriced, under-chilled beers.

Posted in Brett Favre, Christmas Bowl, Football, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, NFL, Playoffs, Randy Moss, Tom Brady | Leave a comment

Hot New Option at the Hot Corner

Posted on December 13, 2008 by Jeremiah Graves

For the second off-season in a row the Twins may be importing some infield help from down south. The difference is, this time it would be the right move to make, as opposed to last off-season’s Adam Everett and Mike Lamb debacles.

ty_wigginton Ty Wigginton was non-tendered by the Houston Astros on Friday night as part of a cost-cutting measure to reduce payroll. In doing so, the Astros have given the Twins an enticing new option at third-base, a position the team has been seeking to upgrade this off-season.

Prior to his re-signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers, there was much speculation that the Twins were front-runners to land Casey Blake to man the hot-corner. The two sides ran into a sticking-point in regards to contract length and the deal fell through. The other big-name free-agent at the position is the oft-injured Joe Crede who is coming off another back surgery and represented by Scott Boras.

The Twins main targets via trade appear to be Garrett Atkins of Colorado and Adrian Beltre of Seattle, but neither seems to be available at a cost the Twins deem reasonable.

Thus the entry of Ty Wigginton into the free-agent picture has to make the Twins very excited. Wigginton compares very well statistically to all of the other third-base options available and comes at a much more sensible price for the penny-pinching Twins.

In the chart below you’ll see a comparison of the top options the Twins are/were considering and Wigginton. All five players listed are right-handed hitting third-basemen with some pop which is exactly what the Twins are seeking. The numbers are pretty streamlined across the board in terms of power production, but Wigginton offers it with a cheaper price tag.

Here’s to hoping Bill Smith pounces on this opportunity.

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Posted in Cheap Seat Chronicles, Minnesota Twins, Ty Wigginton | Leave a comment

Handing Out the Hardware

Posted on November 12, 2008 by Jeremiah Graves

Well, the post-season is upon us. A few major moves have already been made and starting tomorrow at midnight, it’s going to be a free-for-all on free agents. With these major events transpiring and the impending arrival of the Winter Meetings just around the corner, I figured now would be the right time to dish out my awards for the year that was. That’s right folks, it’s time for the 2008 Graveys!!

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Manager of the Year

Ron Gardenhire – Minnesota Twins – 88-72 (2^nd Place – AL Central)

Okay, here it comes. This is the point where I’m expecting a plethora of insults for being a homer and going with the Twins, but let’s be real here folks. I know that Joe Maddon’s magic touch in Tampa is the feel-good story of 2008, but everyone expected the Rays to be in the mix. Look back at all of the preseason rankings from the “experts” the Rays were set to contend and merely arrived a year early than expected.

The Twins were left for dead after the losing Torii Hunter and Johan Santana in the offseason. The team only returned three regulars to the lineup and featured Livan Hernandez as the team ace for the first half of the season. In the end the Twins found themselves tied with the equally surprising Chicago White Sox after 162 games and lost to the ChiSox in a one-game tiebreaker to miss the playoffs. Call me crazy, but that’s a pretty good turnaround for a team that was expected to finish in the AL Central. Gardenhire works his magic every year and never receives the appreciation he deserves, well this year, he’s getting it from me. Enjoy your Gravey, Gardy…you’ve earned it!!

My Preseason Pick: N/A

Rookie of the Year

Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays – .272 / 27-HR / 85-RBI

Longoria was the favorite to win this award from day one; the question was whether or not the Rays would call him up early enough to allow that to happen. As it turns out they did and he had a rookie season that was far more Ryan Braun than Alex Gordon. The Rays benefitted greatly when Longoria was in the line-up. In addition to his outstanding offensive contributions, he also played Gold Glove defense at the hot corner and served as one of the major motivators for a very young, very hungry ballclub.

Longoria possesses the presence and poise of a cagey veteran, not that of a 22-year-old rookie. The fact that he put up those numbers despite missing time at the beginning of the year in the minors and then late in the season due to an injury only further hit home the fact that this kid is something special and will be a major force for a long, long time.

My Preseason Pick: Evan Longoria

Cy Young

Roy Halladay – Toronto Blue Jays – 20 W / 246 IP / 206 K / 2.78 ERA / 1.05 WHIP

I had a very good feeling about ‘Doc’ Halladay in Spring Training. Reports were that he showed up to camp looking and feeling better than he had in years and it showed through out the season. Halladay returned to form as a dominant strikeout pitcher in 2008, a flashback to his 2003 Cy Young campaign, by recording 206 strikeouts his best since ’03 and the best of his career. He logged 246 innings by pitching nine complete games, an unheard of amount in today’s game. His overall record took some hits due to the Blue Jays ineffective offense in the season’s first-half, but he showed down the stretch that when he’s on, he’s as dominant as ever.

I know many will disagree with this selection and want to give the nod to Cliff Lee, who had an amazing year as well, but one look at the head-to-head numbers shows that Halladay, given more innings, a better WHIP, more strikeouts and five more complete games was clearly the more dominant pitcher in 2008.

My Preseason Pick: Roy Halladay

Most Valuable Player

Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox – .312 / 29 HR / 115 RBI

The American League MVP race is a tight one this season, as no one player stands head and shoulders above the competition. Dustin Pedroia, Carlos Quentin, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Josh Hamilton and Kevin Youkilis all put up great numbers and could logically win the award, but my vote goes to Youk.

In a season that saw the Red Sox suffer through numerous injuries to big-time run producers David Ortiz and Mike Lowell; and the loss of Manny Ramirez, Youkilis was a constant. He was bashing the ball all over the yard all season long, he came up in clutch situations and he played Gold Glove defense at first-base and then shifted over to third base when Mike Lowell went on the DL. Without Youkilis stepping up to shoulder the load throughout the season the Red Sox very well may have been sitting in third or fourth place in the standings this season. Without a doubt, the most valuable player in the AL for 2008 is Kevin Youkilis.

My Preseason Pick: Alex Rodriguez

National League

Manager of the Year

Fredi Gonzalez – Florida Marlins – 84-77 (3^rd Place – NL East)

Again, I’m bucking the general trend of choosing the manager who led his team to the best record or a League Championship. Personally, I’m of the belief that the sign of a good manager is someone who is able to win when he isn’t expected to. Lou Pinella? Charlie Manuel? Is there anyone who didn’t forecast those two talent-laden teams to be in the playoff mix? Gonzalez took a Marlins team that traded away its ace and star player in the offseason and guided them right into the thick of the NL East and Wild Card races for most of the season, a prospect no one would have expected entering the season.

My Preseason Prediction: N/A

Rookie of the Year

–TIE–

Geovany Soto – Chicago Cubs – .285 / 23 HR / 86 RBI

Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds – .297 / 24 HR / 84 RBI

This one was a tough call, and ultimately, one I couldn’t bring myself to make.

Soto generally gets the nod because he plays a premium position. I’ll give him that. It takes some serious moxie to catch 136 games and still put up solid offensive numbers. Soto’s ability to handle the Cubs dynamic pitching staff, coupled with his extraordinary offensive prowess earned him a spot on the NL All-Star team and propelled him into the elite class of catchers in the majors.

Votto’s season started out well-enough as he beat out incumbent first-basemen Scott Hatteberg and proceeded to rake from then on. Many predicted that one of his Reds’ teammates, Jay Bruce or Johnny Cueto, would be the biggest impact rookie of 2008, but Votto’s quiet approach led to a very solid, very under-the-radar campaign that earns him his first-ever Gravey.

My Preseason Pick: Johnny Cueto

Cy Young

Johan Santana – New York Mets – 18 W / 234 IP / 206 K / 2.53 ERA / 1.14 WHIP

Okay, here come the boos again assuming I’m making this call in favor of Santana because I’m a fan. Well safe to say, that’s not the case. Once again, I refuse to buy into the feel-good story for the Cy Young. Yes, “Tiny” Tim Lincecum had a great season. Just like Cliff Lee did in the AL, but statistically Lincecum and Santana were right on the same page. As such, I’m going to give the edge to Santana. He was adjusting to a new league, a new team, new opponents and had to deal with batting regularly for the first time in his professional career. In addition, the abysmal Mets bullpen cost him more than a half-a-dozen games along the way. There is no doubt that Santana with 20 wins runs away with this award in everyone’s eyes. Well Johan, you may not get the real hardware, but you’ve earned another Gravey!

My Preseason Pick: Johan Santana

Most Valuable Player

Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals – .357 / 37 HR / 116 RBI

Without a doubt, the most underappreciated star in all of baseball. Pujols put up a very typical Pujols year again in 2008 and, as usual, flew largely under the radar. In addition the gaudy numbers above it is notable to mention that he also scored 100 runs—a feat he’s only missed once in his eight big-league seasons (99 runs in 2007)—and posted a ridiculous .462 on-base percentage.

Pujols’ value, however, extends beyond his mammoth offensive contributions. He plays a great first-base defensively (he posted a .996 field percentage in 2008, the same as Gold Glove winner Adrian Gonzalez) and he boosts the line-up around him both on and off the field. Pujols is without a doubt the clubhouse leader and the heart-and-soul of the Cardinals franchise. In addition, his presence in the line-up helped generate career years for Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel. Without Pujols the Cardinals would not have stuck around the NL Central and NL Wild Card races until September, without a doubt Pujols win the 2008 NL MVP.

My Preseason Pick: Matt Holliday

So there you have it folks, the end of the 2008 Graveys. It was a great season and it figures to be an exciting offseason. We’ve already seen numerous players switch uniforms and free-agency hasn’t even opened up to the masses yet. Expect much more baseball commentary, insights and opinions as the offseason heats up.

Posted in Albert Pujols, Awards, Baseball, Cheap Seat Chronicles, Cy Young, Johan Santana, MVP, Rookie of the Year, Roy Halladay, The Graveys | Leave a comment

Ray of Hope

Posted on October 23, 2008 by Jeremiah Graves

Cole Hamels is out of the way. That’s right Rays fans (or bandwagon jumpers) even though Tampa Bay took the loss in the World Series opener, there’s one big ray of hope for games two through four and that’s the lack of Hamels.

Hamels continued his impersonation of Josh Beckett with another dominating post-season appearance on Wednesday night by hurling seven innings of two run baseball; there by boosting his record to 4-0 with a 1.55 ERA this postseason. With Hamels now out of the picture until Game 5—unless Philly moves him up in the rotation—the Rays will get to take their chances against the likes of Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton.

All fine pitchers, but definitely not nearly the same caliber as Cole Hamels.

Hopefully with Hamels out of the way the offense—which only mustered five hits—can get into a rhythm. The Rays’ 2-3-4 hitters—BJ Upton, Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria—were a combined 0-for-12 with five strikeouts in Game 1, with Upton twice grounding into double plays.

If the Rays offense fails to jump out of the blocks in Game 2, the predictions/hopes of a competitive seven game series may go by the wayside very quickly, especially if the good-version of Brett Myers shows up and the Phillies late-inning knockout punch of Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge are waiting in the wings to turn out the lights.

The Rays, however, weren’t the only ones who suffered from disappointing production in Game 1. The Phillies were 0-for-13 wither runners in scoring position and are ‘hitting’ a meager .195 with RISP in the postseason. Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard went 0-for-4 with a walk and three strikeouts and leadoff man Jimmy Rollins went 0-for-5 with a pair of strikeouts as well. Not exactly inspired play from the two most recent NL MVPs.

Neither team is head-and-shoulders above the other at this juncture, but all of that could change with some big-time pitching performances or a sudden infusion of life into either lineup. Either way, I fully expect Game 2 will bring the same type of dogfight that will hopefully carry on through a full seven game set.

Posted in Baseball, Cheap Seat Chronicles, Cole Hamels, World Series | Leave a comment

ESPN Rant…

Posted on September 26, 2008 by Jeremiah Graves

I am sick and tired of ESPN’s lame-ass east coast bias. I’m sick and tired of ESPN leading with stories about how the Yankees are out of the playoffs and how the Mets are “choking” again or how the Red Sox (who are already a lock for the playoffs) are still fighting an uphill battle.

The best race in baseball all-season long has been in the AL Central where the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox have been trading blows in their battle for first place and a division title. What makes this all the more intriguing is that neither of these teams was given a snowball’s chance in hell when the season started.

The Cleveland Indians, last year’s AL runner-up, and the Detroit Tigers were both slated to be battling it out to the final days of summer. The Tigers were supposed to score twelve billion runs and the Indians were supposed to finish what they started last year when they ran away with the division and were on the brink of a World Series berth.

Instead what happened was the dismantled Twins–after losing their ace in Johan Santana and the face of the franchise in Torii Hunter–proved all of the naysayers wrong with a combination of solid young pitching and timely hitting. Contributions from new faces played a big role in the Twins battle for AL Central supremacy.

On the other side of the coin are the 2005 World Series Champion Chicago White Sox. The Sox had regressed in the two years following their championship and many people had written them off as possible contenders. Pundits viewed them as not having enough rotation depth or enough youth in their aging lineup to compete. Instead, GM Kenny Williams acquired MVP candidate Carlos Quentin, gold glove shortstop Orlando Cabrera, Cuban import Alexei Ramirez, the enigmatic Nick Swisher and bullpen stabilizers Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink. Pitchers Gavin Floyd and John Danks stepped up and were major forces in the back-end of the rotation and the offense powered it’s way to the top of the standings.

So now here we sit…the final week of the regular season. The Yankees are done. The Mets are clinging to a shot at the Wild Card. The Red Sox, essentially, clinched two weeks ago given their five game lead over the next team in the AL Wild Card standings. In the AL Central the Twins and White Sox came into a three-game set at the Metrodome with two and a half games separating them and what happens. The Twins sweep the White Sox in three great games. The third game is full of drama as the Twins rally after being down six to one in the fourth inning and force extra innings. The Twins win with a walk-off in the tenth. Good stuff right. Right.

However, on ESPN–as has been the case for weeks–the AL Central gets no love. During Oregon State’s huge upset of USC there is a cut-in, just minutes after the conclusion of the Twins game. I assume it’s going to be about the Twins and how they’ve just taken over first. No, no…it’s a baseball update, but there’s no mention of the Twins/White Sox game at all. Instead they show the Mets’ ninth inning rally and then they show the Brewers’ walk-off grand-slam. Both huge moments, no doubt…and honestly…I’m okay with that. I don’t even care if they play those clips first and for whatever reason put more emphasis on a Wild Card race, but whatever. What I do care about is that after showing clips from the playoff racing involving the Mets…they go back to the game. No mention of the Twins/White Sox…no clips…no nothing.

*sigh*

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200809253550680

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Breaking Down the Playoff Races (09/24/2008)

Posted on September 24, 2008 by Jeremiah Graves

Tuesday night fans were treated to some very big, very important games with playoff implications galore and as a result saw many teams step it up with big-time performances. Here’s my take on some of the more impressive games.

————————————

Mets def. Cubs 6-2

One year ago the Mets were in the midst of a tremendous collapse and when they needed a big-game pitcher they turned to—Tom Glavine?! Sure Glavine might have been the go-to guy in the mid-90s but he is by no means a modern stopper. Johan Santana, however, is exactly that. With a career 57-17 record after the All-Star break and some of the most dominating pitches in all of baseball, Santana is exactly the guy the Mets needed to add this season and last night he proved why. Santana spun eight beautiful innings. He gave up two earned and struck out ten while doing some damage with the stick as well. This is why the Mets traded the top-half of their farm-system to acquire Santana. Interesting note: Santana will be available to go in the season finale Sunday if necessary.

Twins def. White Sox 9-3

“Keep the ball in the yard.” That’s the mantra for any team looking to defeat the White Sox. The ChiSox have proven all-season long that they do their damage with the long-ball and a relatively lights-out bullpen. Essentially, they’re the anti-Twins. This year the Twins’ bullpen has been horrendous due to the loss of Pat Neshek and the Twins have the second-fewest home runs in all of Major League Baseball. It was, however, the aforementioned mantra that would prevail on Tuesday night as the Twins only allowed one bomb (Ken Griffey Jr’s 610th) and went on to scorch the White Sox 9-3. The team was carried offensively by Jason Kubel who had a breakout game with two home-runs of his own and a triple. On the hill Scott Baker hurled seven impressive innings to help vault the Twins within a game and a half of the AL Central lead.

Brewers def. Pirates 7-5

Prince Fielder hit a towering walk-off home-run, the type of home-run that seemed oddly reminiscent of David Ortiz’s ALCS bombs in 2004. That one round-tripper could be just what the Brew-Crew need to carry them into the playoffs. Everyone knows that the best teams make the playoffs, but the hottest teams win in the playoffs. The Brewers have been one of baseball’s best teams all-season long and if that homer causes a ripple effect throughout the clubhouse, they may very well be one of the hottest teams playing deep into October.

Red Sox def. Indians 5-4

Cleveland’s Cliff Lee has been outstanding this season. Without a doubt he’s the AL Cy Young winner and–after working his way back from a demotion to Triple-A last season– he’s earned it. Tuesday night, however, he had one bad inning against the powerful Red Sox lineup and it cost him the win. This game wasn’t big so much because the Red Sox clinched a playoff berth, that was pretty much a given as both of the AL Central contenders faded in the past two weeks. This biggest impact of this game was that it officially put the final nail in the coffin on the Yankees hopes of making a 14th consecutive post-season appearance.

Dodgers def. Padres 10-1

The game itself was a laugher, but it proved the Dodgers’ resiliency in a big way. The D-Backs are getting hot again and the Dodgers were coming off the heels of a tough 1-0 loss to the Giants on Sunday. The Dodgers looked loose given the pressure, which further proves that this year’s mix of veterans and youngsters are blending much better to create a more cohesive clubhouse at the most important time of the year. Joe Torre is pretty much a lock to make the playoffs—barring unforeseen tanking by the Dodgers—and the way he handled this roster is a big reason why.

Rays def. Orioles 5-2, 7-5

The Rays sweeping a double-header when they’re already a lock for the playoffs shows why these guys are going to be scary in the post-season. They know they could be resting starters and playing out the string, but these guys want to win. They want to take the AL East and force the Red Sox to enter the playoff fray as the Wild Card team. I think taking this double-header proves that Tampa Bay is going to be wrecking crew in October, best of luck to whomever wins the Central.

Braves def. Phillies 3-2

The Phillies are not a lock for the playoffs. They have the Mets breathing down their necks in the NL East and then the Brewers in the NL Wild Card chase. This is a team that cannot afford to give away games to Atlanta when their ace is on the hill. Cole Hamels pitched a fine game (7IP/2ER/7K) and only got two runs of support from one of the most potent lineups in the National League. If the Phillies want to be considered a serious championship contender they need to play like one, day-in and day-out. I don’t think this team has the chops and I feel like they’re going to be the odd man out at the end of this weekend.

Cardinals def. Diamondbacks 7-4

Randy Johnson got roughed up by the Cardinals in another must-win game for the D-Backs. The loss serves as a serious blow to Arizona’s postseason chances. The D-backs trail the first-place Dodgers by three games in the National League West with just five games remaining. This comes after the D-Backs were anointed the NL Champs back in April and then proceeded to regress through the summer. Any team that is sitting one-game over .500 in the final week of the regular season would normally be long-since eliminated, but as has often been the case in recent years in the NL, it makes them alive—albeit on life-support. In my opinion, we can go ahead and assume that starting this Sunday afternoon Arizona fans can go ahead and start looking forward to Suns basketball.

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Twins Looking to Match First-Half Success

Posted on July 16, 2008 by Jeremiah Graves

The Minnesota Twins entered the season with low expectations, but will exit the All-Star break just a game and a half out of first place in the American League Central. With a legitimate shot at the post-season the Twins must be considered buyers as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches. As such, I’ve taken a look at some of the Twins best options to improve on offense and on the mound, both internally and externally…

OFFENSE

The Twins biggest need right now is someone who can provide legitimate power for a lineup that ranks at the bottom of the American League in total home runs. The team is near the top in most other offensive categories, but is in dire need of a home run hitter given the power outages of Justin Morneau, Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer.

External Options

Adrian Beltre – 3B – Seattle Mariners

-The Mariners are looking to distance themselves from the Bill Bavasi Era and should be looking to restock their recently depleted farm system in any trade. The Twins could provide the Mariners need while bringing in a Gold Glove third baseman with the potential to hit 20-25 HRs and provide the right-handed power-bat the Twins expected Michael Cuddyer and/or Delmon Young to be between the left-handed duo of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. The upside is that the Twins would control Beltre through 2009 at a reasonably $13.4 million which is roughly what Torii Hunter was making prior to his exodus.

Dallas McPherson – 3B/1B – Florida Marlins

-The Florida Marlins are in a playoff race of their own in the NL East and are currently looking for a veteran catcher to handle their staff and provide some offense now that Matt Treanor has hit the DL. As much as it would hurt to lose Mike Redmond, the potential return of McPherson—who is hitting .296/.403/.674 with 32 HRs and 71 RBI in 300 at-bats at AAA—would probably help the healing process.

Hank Blalock – 3B/1B – Texas Rangers

-Blalock has been injured for much of the previous two seasons, but—when healthy—he has shown glimpses of returning to the player he was from 2003 to 2005 when he made two All-Star teams and hit 86 home runs to go with 192 runs batted in. His lefty bat doesn’t fit the exact need the Twins’ current need, but if he is healthy down the stretch, his bat can help carry an offense.

Richie Sexson – 1B/DH – Free Agent

-Another product of the Bavasi Era who can be had for a prorated portion of the league minimum. In theory, Sexson will probably be gobbled up by the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers or Angels as soon as he clears waivers and won’t even be an issue for the Twins. However, Sexson amounts to the ultimate gamble. After-all it was just two years ago that he crushed 34 homers and 107 runs batted in. It is possible that a change of scenery could rejuvenate the beleaguered slugger. His career .261 average is right on par with Jason Kubel the left-handed portion of the Twins’ DH-platoon, but is roughly 50 points higher than Craig Monroe and his right-handed portion of the platoon. In fact, Sexson is hitting .344 against lefties this season…call me crazy but for a prorated portion of the league minimum that’s not a bad investment.

Barry Bonds – DH – Free Agent

-I know, I know…this is the part where the booing and hissing begins, but let’s be honest there isn’t a better hitter on the market. Bonds led all of baseball in OBP last season and jacked 28 homers in just 340 at-bats. He hits righties, he hits lefties, he just flat-out hits. Throw in the fact that he is willing to play for the league minimum and is focused on winning a championship and this seems like the move to make. Throw in the fact that he is only 65 hits away from 3,000 and there is the chance for him to make history in a Twins uniform while helping the team make and excel in the playoffs.

Internal Options

Michael Cuddyer

-If Cuddyer can get healthy and return to the lineup he could be a large catalyst for the Twins offense down the stretch. Cuddyer is a streaky player, offensively, but provides great defense in right field and is a leader in the clubhouse. A healthy return from Cuddy could propel the Twins offense and allow more options at DH and in the OF with Denard Span proving he belongs on the major league roster.

Delmon Young

-It’s not that Young isn’t producing; in fact, he’s had a fine first season in Minnesota thus far. What’s lacking, however, has been his power stroke. Young has legitimate 25-30 home run power and although he is still growing into that power should probably have more than three. Young is set to have a huge second-half and could provide the big bat the Twins are in need of without costing the Twins a thing.

PITCHING

The Twins aren’t generally one to dabble in the pitching market because of the team’s depth at the position. As such, the Twins are far more likely to make an internal move to bolster both the starting rotation and the bullpen.

Internal Options

Francisco Liriano

-“The Franchise” has been absolutely dominate as of late in Triple-A. Liriano is 7-0 with a 2.73 ERA in his last eight starts and has thrown 21.1 consecutive scoreless innings. Apparently he has returned to his old three-quarters arm angle and has regained his power and control. Needless to say, if the Twins can gain the Liriano of 2006 for the stretch run, the balance of power in the AL Central has shifted.

Bobby Korecky

-Korecky, a minor league veteran of seven years, could serve in a role that the Twins desperately need to fill, the role of eighth inning set-up man. Since Pat Neshek hit the DL, the Twins have struggled to find a dominant set-up man for Joe Nathan and Ron Gardenhire’s policy of using Nathan only in the ninth inning has cost the Twins a handful of games already. Since being promoted to Rochester last season, Korecky has tallied 47 saves, 114 K and 3.57 ERA.

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That’s Why They Play the Games…

Posted on July 13, 2008 by Jeremiah Graves

There’s an old adage in sports that championships are won on the field, not on paper and that’s why they play the games.

On paper the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians figured to battle one another all-season long for supremacy of the American League Central. The Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals were both expected to improve over dismal showings in 2007 and battle for the moniker of “third-best team in baseball’s best division.”

And then there was the Minnesota Twins, left for dead by most “experts” following a tumultuous off-season that began with the resignation of longtime General Manager Terry Ryan and saw the team lose the face of the franchise in Gold Glove centerfielder, Torii Hunter when he signed a big-money deal to take his highlight reel defense and streaky offense to Hollywood as the second marquee centerfielder acquired in two years by the Angels.

Reliable innings-eater Carlos Silva, channeling Steve Miller, decided to take the money and run when the Seattle Mariners came calling with an ill-conceived four-year, $48 million offer under the assumption that adding the sinkerballer would put the Ms over the top.

Then there was the Johan Santana debacle. Throughout the entire off-season everyone questioned whether the Twins would trade arguably the best pitcher in the game or try to sign him long-term. The answer was both. The Twins made numerous contract offers only to be rebuffed by Santana who was more than content to play out his final season with the Twins and test the waters of free agency.

In lieu of watching Santana walk away for nothing more than two compensatory draft picks, the Twins fielded offers from various suitors only to learn that no one wanted to pony up the price the Twins were asking. In the end Santana became the highest paid pitcher in baseball as a New York Met and the Twins gained a package of prospects that was largely panned by those same experts who predicted a last place finish for the Twins.

That was all before Opening Day. Since Opening Day, things haven’t worked out exactly how they were predicted on paper and that, my friends, is why they play the games.

As we enter the All-Star break, the Twins are nipping at the pale heels of the White Sox for the division lead. The “mighty” Indians have already packed it in by jettisoning team ace, CC Sabathia, to Milwaukee for a package of prospects and letting beleaguered sluggers Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner marinate on the DL instead of rushing back to the lost cause that is the Indians defense of the AL Central crown.

The Tigers who entered the season with what was deemed “the greatest offensive team of all-time” have largely underachieved and are hovering at .500 with just an outside chance of contending. The Royals, are—well—the Royals. They’ve got talent, but they’re underachieving and will have to fight and claw to stay out of the AL Central cellar for a fifth straight season.

There are still 67 games left to be played in this surprising 2008 season and sure the Twins could fall in the second half and both the Tigers and Indians could reverse their fortunes, but even if that is the case, the first 95 games of this magical season have shown us exactly why they play the games. Here’s to hoping the Twins can keep proving everyone wrong…on the field and, now, on paper (or at least pixels) too.

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Scouting for the Twins

Posted on June 5, 2008 by Jeremiah Graves

Today is Major League Baseball’s draft, unfortunately the most unheralded of all the professional drafts. There are numerous reasons why this is the case, such as:

-Due to the lack of televised games, college and high school baseball players are far less familiar to the sporting public than players eligible to be drafted in the NBA and the NFL.

-Although the same is true of all drafts, all too often a player who goes in the first-round of the MLB draft is never seen or heard from again.

-Due to the minor league system in baseball, draftees almost never have any sort of immediate impact, thus limiting the number of Rays fans running out to by Tim Beckham jerseys today.

Despite those glaring facts and the fact that the media seems to have no real interest in the draft, I certainly do and I know many other baseball fans do as well. As such, I’ve been scouting the crop of talent available in this year’s draft a lot in recent weeks and I’ve gone through and made a list of the top three players I’m hoping my boys–the Minnesota Twins–can snag with their first pick in the draft (number 14).

— My Top 3 —

(1) Jemile Weeks, 2B, University of Miami

As we’ve seen in recent years the younger brothers of former first-rounders (Justin Upton and Stephen Drew) have done pretty good for themselves at the professional level. As such, I’d like to see the Twins take a stab at Rickie Weeks’ younger brother Jemile.

Even though he plays the same position as his older brother, Jemile is not the same kind of player. The younger Weeks is a switch-hitter who doesn’t have, and likely will never have, the kind of power Rickie does. Weeks is a line-drive, slashing type of hitter who squares the ball up well and can really get things going with leadoff-type skills. He runs extremely well and could steal a ton of bases in the pros. His defense is somewhat in question, but could definitely be improved by coaching at a higher level.

(2) Brett Lawrie, C/3B, Brookswood SS, Langley, B.C.

Lawrie brings two very important things to the table for the Twins. First he has the ability to play third-base, obviously the biggest hole in the Twins lineup since Corey Koskie departed via free-agency. He also has the ability to contribute behind the dish, a move that would allow the Twins to rest Joe Mauer’s knees more often and/or eventually move him to a different position.

Due to the fact that scouting Canadian players can sometimes be difficult because of the lack of opportunity to see them the information on Lawrie is a little limited, but scouts know all about Lawrie and his plus power potential. At present he’s mostly a pull hitter without a true position, though he’s shown the tools — raw though they may be — to handle being a catcher and playing the hot corner. It may take a while, but putting that bat behind the plate could one day make him a premium player.

(3) Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State

Wallace, from all reports I’ve read, is one of the best hitters in college and perhaps in the entire Draft class. He possesses unbelievable plate discipline and has the ability to hit .300 with 25+ homers in the majors on a yearly basis.

What limits Wallace–and is driving him down on many people’s draft projections–is his body. At 6’1″ 245lbs he is a pretty big boy. Odds are this will limit his ability to play 3B at the Major League level and will be relegated to first base detail, which makes Justin Morneau an immediate roadblock. The Twins could groom Wallace as a 1B/DH, but would be more inclined to draft him and put him on a training regimen that would allow him to play third base in the pros, thus immediately increasing his value.

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Dealing with Papi’s Big Injury

Posted on June 4, 2008 by Jeremiah Graves

David Ortiz hit the DL this week with a tear in the sheath that surrounds the tendon in his left wrist and although Big Papi thinks he can be back in a month, many think that the injury won’t heal in that time and may require season-ending surgery. If that is in fact the case, I can’t help but think that the Red Sox will be looking to their crimson brothers-in-arms, the Cincinnati Reds for an offensive boost.

Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. both figure to be available and both could help the Sox in multiple ways.

Griffey and Dunn are both left-handed hitters who could provide solid numbers in the three-hole for the Red Sox. Both have significant power. Both have the ability to play the corners at Fenway and/or DH-alternatively with Manny Ramirez.

But most importantly…Cincy is most-likely looking to move both of them in order to save some serious cash and gain more prospects for the team’s on-going youth movement.

Let’s take a look at the Sox options:

Ken Griffey Jr.

In Griffey, the Sox would essential acquire a rent-a-player for the season, but if they are successful, perhaps Griffey would want to stay longer and make another championship run…something he isn’t likely to do if he returns to Seattle as most people are predicting he will. They would also acquire one of the best players of this era–albeit on the downside of his career–and someone who would seemingly fit in very well with the Boston clubhouse.

Adam Dunn

In Dunn, the Sox would receive a powerful 28-year-old who appears to just be entering his prime and has raked to the tune of 40 homers (or better) for each of the last four years and is on pace to do it again in 2008. Dunn would be a wise signing if the Sox decided not to exercise Manny’s option after 2008, as he could play the small left field at Fenway just as admirably as Manny and put up similar offensive numbers. However, with the uncertainty surrounding Big Papi’s injury and his history of wrist-injuries, perhaps it’d be in the Sox best interest to sign Dunn and Ramirez and “worst-case scenario”, David Ortiz comes back healthy and mashing and the Sox find that they have an overload of offensive talent. What a sad situation that would be for Sox, huh?!

What would it take to land Griffey or Dunn?

To get Griffey it would probably cost the Sox at least one solid pitching prospect (not named Masterson) most-likely Charlie Zink or Craig Hansen. The Reds would probably also want to land an outfielder in the deal such as Jeff Bailey or Chris Carter.

It may cost the Sox a little more to land Dunn, due to his age and current value to the Reds line-up, it might take Justin Masterson and some combination of Jed Lowrie, Brandon Moss, Zink, Bailey or Carter. Although given the proven skills of both Masterson and Lowrie the Sox may be able to get away with one of those two and a lower level prospect.

Final Analysis

Either way the trade makes sense for both sides. Ortiz’s injury is a serious one and even if he is able to come back this season, there is a good chance he will be hampered by the injury all year, and it figures to sap his power and thus damages his on-base abilities as pitchers would be less-inclined to pitch around him. This gives the Sox a definite back-up plan and an option in the corners to help spell Manny and keep him from having another of his yearly late season “injuries.”

It benefits the Reds because, even with the youth-movement in full swing, they don’t appear set to contend in 2008. If the team doesn’t choose to sign Dunn long-term (which would be a mistake) then he and Griffey both should be moved before walking away and leaving the team with nothing to show for it. The Reds can gain some high-ceiling prospects from the Red Sox and continue to keep their farm system stocked and keep the infusion of young talent coming, that way the team isn’t forced to rely on the likes of Corey Patterson beyond the 2008 season.

Thoughts? Opinions? Blatant insults regarding my horrible use of ellipses? Etc…

…I’d love to hear ’em?!

Posted in Adam Dunn, Baseball, David Ortiz, Ken Griffey Jr. | Leave a comment

Why Barry Bonds Will Have a Job in 2008…

Posted on May 15, 2008 by Jeremiah Graves

So here we are at the quarter mark of the 2008 season. The time of the season when General Managers take a step back to look at what they’ve assembled. It is now that teams begin to decide whether or not they’re going to be legitimate contenders as the season wears on.

Once that decision is made it’s up to the GMs to determine what the next course of action should be. If the team has decided it’s not likely to contend; the next move is generally a sell-off of high-priced veterans with an eye toward the future. However, if the team believes it has a shot—that’s when things get interesting.

Coming into the 2008 season the Mariners, Blue Jays and Tigers were all thought to be potential contenders and in the case of the Tigers, one of the odds-on-favorites to win the World Series. Right now all three are struggling offensively and could use a serious shot in the arm (pun VERY MUCH intended) by the name of Barry Bonds.

I’m going to take a look at all three teams and how Barry Bonds does or does not fit into their playoff hopes going forward.

SEATTLE MARINERS

The Mariners entered 2008 on the heels of a successful campaign that led to the resigning of Ichiro Suzuki and saw the team improve the rotation with the additions of Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva. Many picked the Mariners to unseat the Angels atop the AL West on the back of the retooled pitching staff, strong bullpen and a solid offense. Unfortunately, someone forgot to inform the offense.

The offense currently ranks 23rd with a .250 average and 29th with an on-base percentage of .309. These low totals explain why the team has only amassed a whopping total of 165 runs thus far.

The team is predominantly right-handed with lefties, Ichiro and Raul Ibanez, and switch-hitter Jose Vidro being the only regulars to mix up the parade of right-handed hitters. Bonds is–without a doubt–the best lefty on the market and even at age 43 can still produce at a high level both in terms of power and on-base percentage (28 homers and .480 OBP in 340 at-bats in 2007).

The Mariners—who are currently ten games under .500 and 8 ½ games out of first in the AL West—have already made attempts to shake up the lineup by jettisoning Brad Wilkerson and Greg Norton and replacing them with minor league standouts Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien. There were discussions regarding Frank Thomas, when the slugger was released by the Blue Jays in late April, but Thomas’ decision to rejoin Oakland quickly put an end to any chances of the Big Hurt bringing his Hall of Fame credentials to the Pacific Northwest.

Why It Will Happen: Current DH Jose Vidro is “hitting” .193 with two home runs and a .244 OBP, Bonds could hit better than that right-handed…and blind-folded. Needless to say Bonds would be an immediate upgrade and would love having Ichiro on base in front of him all season long, almost as much as Ichiro would love having Bonds batting behind him.

Why It Won’t Happen: The oft-rumored Ken Griffey Jr. to the Mariners deal seems more likely than Bonds landing in Seattle. Griffey would provide the offensive upgrade and the left-handed bat the team so desperately needs. Throw in the fact that he is a hero in the Emerald City and it only makes sense for Griff to return to Seattle for a storybook ending to his career.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

As is the case every season in recent memory, the Blue Jays entered the season as a popular “dark horse” candidate to make a playoff run in the powerful AL East. The team boasts one of the best rotations in all of baseball and was supposed to have a dynamic offense with Alex Rios, Frank Thomas, Aaron Hill and the returns of a healthy Scott Rolen and Vernon Wells.

What the Blue Jays got was one of the lowest scoring offenses in the American League. The Jays currently sit at 153 runs scored with a .255 team average. As a result of the low output (and the unattractive vesting option he was closing in on) Frank Thomas was released in late April and Seattle cast-off Brad Wilkerson was brought in along with the streaky, yet underachieving Kevin Mench from Texas.

The Blue Jays currently sit in last place in the AL East, five games out of first-place and the only reason they’re that close is because the pitching has been stellar thus far. Without some sort of offensive wake-up call the Jays can right off contending in 2008 and potentially beyond with the window closing on much of the team’s aging core.

The Blue Jays have gotten sufficient results from Matt Stairs, but Adam Lind is overmatched and belongs in Triple-A. Wilkerson, Mench, Shannon Stewart and the plethora of other outfielders the Jays have sent out are not getting it done. The team would be wise to move Stairs to left and put Bonds in the DH slot and use both Bonds and Stairs to split up the right-hander heavy core of Wells, Rios and Rolen.

Why It Will Happen: Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi has shown that he’s not afraid of shaking up his roster. He’s already made a handful of transactions this season in an attempt to improve his struggling offense and as a student of Billy Beane’s on-base percentage philosophy, Bonds is the perfect fit for this squad and wouldn’t deal with nearly the level of media scrutiny north of the border.

Why It Won’t Happen: The Jays are a middle-of-the-pack spender and don’t figure to increase their payroll. Signing Bonds, even at a discount, wouldn’t be in line with the team’s spending philosophy. The Blue Jays are far more likely to deal from their strength, young pitching, to acquire a slugger such as Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, etc…rather than spend to bring in Bonds.

DETROIT TIGERS

Ask just about any baseball “expert” and coming into the 2008 season the Tigers were neck-and-neck with the Red Sox as the odds-on-favorite to win the World Series. Now, with a month and a half of the season in the rearview mirror the Tigers are mired in last-place in the American League Central, four and a half games behind the overachieving Minnesota Twins.

What makes things even more interesting is that the Tigers vaunted offense, which sputtered out of the gates, has finally gotten on a role and the Tigers are in the top five in the AL in team average, on-base percentage and runs scored. The Tigers are getting destroyed by their own overrated starting rotation and the one thing that most experts overlooked in the preseason, the absolute void that is a bullpen.

Detroit currently ranks dead last in ERA (5.03) and saves (5). They are also the only team in the AL without a complete game and one of only two (the Mariners) that have yet to produce a shut-out.

So why am I recommending the Tigers bring in Barry Bonds when he surely can’t help where the team needs him most? What the team lacks—offensively—is a consummate presence at DH and another reliable lefty bat. Bonds could fill both of those voids.

Gary Sheffield and his ailing shoulder have moved back to the outfield with the end of Jacque Jones’ month-long tenure in left-field. That leaves a rotation of aging stars and overweight sluggers like Carlos Guillen, Magglio Ordonez, Ivan Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera to take their turns at DH and super sub – and dispatched starter – Brandon Inge to fill-in around the diamond. The logical move would be to bring in Bonds, plug him in at DH and watch the lineup continue to rake in an attempt to overcome the inequities of the pitching staff.

Why It Will Happen: The Yankees have proven that a team can make the playoffs without a pitching staff and the Tigers appear to be built in the same mold. With a rapidly aging core and much of the youth sold off in offseason the Tigers’ window to win a championship is closing fast. Throw in the fact that Jim Leyland has proven he can manage Bonds in the past, the Tigers appear to be a perfect fit.

Why It Won’t Happen: The offense is set and with Brandon Inge around the team can afford to appoint Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera as the full-time DHs and let Inge get plenty of at-bats whilst upgrading the defense at third-base. The priority right now is pitching and guys like Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Huston Street, George Sherrill, etc are more likely to be on the Tigers’ radar than another aging slugger for their collection.

DARKHORSE CANDIDATES

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

It seems that the Royals have put together a respectable rotation and a solid bullpen. What the team lacks is someone to generate runs. The Royals currently own one of the lowest OBPs in the AL as well as the fewest home runs and runs scored. Kansas City would be wise to give Billy Butler a first-baseman’s mitt and give Barry Bonds the DH-role for as long as he’d like to crush baseballs in the Midwest summer heat.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

Sure, sure they’re in first in the AL East and sure, they’re not expected to compete all season long, but let’s throw logic out the window and just say…what if. What if the Rays brought in Bonds and let him DH all season long. With the likes of BJ Upton and Carl Crawford on base in front of him and sluggers Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena behind him in the lineup—I feel like that offense could hang with the Red Sox and Yankees until September.

NEW YORK YANKEES

This isn’t a logical move for a team that is lefty-heavy and possess about half-a-dozen DHs already, but with Hank Steinbrenner at the helm, anything is possible.

NEW YORK METS

This is another move that doesn’t seem logical, especially given Bonds’ diminished skills in the outfield. However, a left-field platoon of Bonds and Moises Alou would allow Alou to stay healthy and would work to get them both sufficient at-bats throughout the course of an entire season. Also, the luxury of having Endy Chavez as a late-inning defensive replacement nullifies any damage they could do in crunch time while still allowing Willie Randolph to have one or the other on the bench as a pinch-hitter.

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